01
Formula 1
Official race results, championship state and model forecasts — one verified public data surface.
- Status
- Live
- Endpoints
- 88
- Since
- 1950
The Data Driver — probability-based Formula 1 predictions and public track record
Bahrain Grand Prix · Sepang · R16
BRIER 0.038VS GRID +20%11 SCORED
Russell
Live forecast for Bahrain Grand Prix. The model is calibrated against its published race history.
01 / FORECAST
Bahrain Grand Prix
The stage number, row by row
The same win probabilities that drive the forecast above, plotted against the full scale. A short bar means a genuinely open race, not a formatting choice.
Win probability
Absolute scale · 0–100%
01
Russell
mercedes
25.1%
02Antonelli
mercedes
24.2%
03Hamilton
ferrari
14%
04Norris
mclaren
12.2%
05Leclerc
ferrari
9.5%
Σ
Rest of field
Not shown above
15.0%
02 / SIMULATION
Outcome uncertainty
One probability is not one outcome
The row above is only the first column of a simulated race. Here is the rest of it — the joint finishing spread the model stored, not just a single winner number.
| Driver | Win | Podium | Points | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | 25.1% | 60.7% | 95.0% | 4.8% |
| Kimi Antonelli | 24.2% | 59.1% | 94.8% | 5.0% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 14.0% | 43.6% | 94.5% | 5.0% |
| Lando Norris | 12.2% | 41.3% | 94.6% | 5.0% |
| Charles Leclerc | 9.5% | 33.7% | 93.9% | 5.1% |
Model output · joint race simulations
Select a driver to inspect how uncertain their result is. Every position bar is taken directly from the model; DNF is reported separately.
Top five 85.0% · Rest of field 15.0%Full-field probabilities. Values are not reweighted.
Classified finish distribution
George Russell
Bar height = share of simulated races
| Position | Probability |
|---|---|
| P1 | 25.3% |
| P2 | 19.5% |
| P3 | 15.8% |
| P4 | 12.1% |
| P5 | 9.3% |
| P6 | 6.1% |
| P7 | 3.9% |
| P8 | 2.0% |
| P9 | 0.8% |
| P10 | 0.3% |
| P11 | <0.1% |
| P12 | <0.1% |
| P13 | <0.1% |
| P14 | 0% |
| P15 | <0.1% |
| P16 | 0% |
| P17 | 0% |
| P18 | 0% |
| P19 | 0% |
| P20 | 0% |
- Model
- Ensemble + Monte Carlo
- Field
- 22 drivers
- Resolution
- P1–P20 + DNF
- Reading
- Probability, not certainty
03 / DRIVERS
Deep dive
Now hold one driver still
The same simulation, read one driver at a time: win, podium, points and DNF as the model published them, with the finish and score it expects.
Russell
mercedes · #63
Forecast rank01 of 05
- Win
- 25.1%
- Podium
- 60.7%
- Points
- 95.0%
- DNF
- 4.8%
- Expected finish
- P4.1
- Expected points
- 15.4
- Implied odds
- 4.0/1
Stored model output · not reweighted · an em dash means the model published no value
04 / DATA LABforecast source LIVE API
Explore the model
Every number above is queryable
The page you are reading is rendered from the same public API. These four surfaces let you check it against R16 · Formula 1 Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia 2026.
- Forecast rows
- 22
- Brier
- 0.038
- vs Grid
- +20%
06 / COVERAGE
Verified public endpoints
Nothing appears live until the evidence is.
Where all of it comes from
Every series in this manifest is backed by a production pipeline and an inspectable public API. Planned coverage stays off the page.
Status and endpoint counts are read from the public API, not maintained as marketing copy.
Inspect API coverage ↗Live forecast data. Brier: 0.038; vs Grid: +20%; Scored: 11; Model: Ensemble; Field: 22 drivers; Race: R16; Russell: 25.1%; Antonelli: 24.2%; Hamilton: 14%; Norris: 12.2%; Leclerc: 9.5%.
Follow the forecast from its inputs to the result. The model, its calibration and every scored race remain open to inspection.