Forecast favourite
Antonelli
Live forecast for Dutch Grand Prix. The model is calibrated against its published race history.
Top 5 — Dutch Grand Prix
Brier
0.037
vs Grid
+21%
Scored
7
Explore the model
R14 · Formula 1 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix 2026Forecast rows
5
Brier
0.037
vs Grid
+21%
Work with the data.
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Current context · R14 · Formula 1 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix 2026
Monte Carlo
A sample of possible race outcomes, weighted by the current win probabilities.
Displayed leaders are reweighted for this visual — this is not the full-field distribution.
Model
Ensemble
Field
5 leaders
Scoring
Brier
Output
Win probability
Deep dive
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Antonelli
mercedes · #12
Win Prob
21.02%
Implied
4.8/1
Rank
#1of 5
Open markets
Follow the forecast from its inputs to the result. The model, its calibration and every scored race remain open to inspection.